News that BMW and Toyota will collaborate on a new sports car platform had the Nagoya fanboys drooling over the possibility of the return of the Supra. Not gonna happen…So why no Supra? It just doesn’t make sense…There’s a strong faction within Toyota that still regards cars like the Supra as a waste of time, given the boom-and-bust sales performance of previous editions…The other problem is where the Supra would fit into the Toyota lineup, particularly in the U.S., where the GT86 is sold as a Scion and a $45,000 Toyota sports car would be a headache for dealers…

Less than a week ago, however, Bloomberg‘s Masatsugu Horie attended a gathering of members of the Keidanren, Japan’s biggest business lobbying group and noted that

Toyota Motor Corp.’s incoming chairman said he wants the sports car the company is developing with BMW to be a mid-sized vehicle comparable to the discontinued Supra.

Takeshi Uchiyamada has been telling people that Toyota’s next sports car should be like the Supra so that it doesn’t overlap with the 86 coupe…

This was, of course, followed by disclaimers from both Uchiyamada himself

Still, such decisions are up to engineers…That’s what I want but it’s not me who makes the decision…It’s futile if we make something similar to the 86

and from Toyota spokesman Naoto Fuse, who simply stated that “nothing has been decided”.

Sure, Uchiyamada-san may be right, in typical, self-effacing Japanese teamwork fashion, not to mention that BMW is an equal partner on this sports car collaboration, but you can bet that the Toyota chairman’s preferences have to carry some extra weight in the discussions. As an aside, the “father of the Prius” physicist/engineer Takeshi Uchiyamada’s ascension to Toyota’s Chairman of the Board (made official on Friday 14 June) is definitely a good thing for us car enthusiasts, and a welcome change from his “bean counter-mentality” lawyer predecessor Fujio Cho.

Another Kaizen Factor article that appears to be particularly relevant to this discussion is our commentary on Vernon Sarne of Top Gear Philippines’ October 2012 interview with Tetsuya Tada. Tada-san (Toyota’s chief engineer for the joint Toyota/Subaru sports car project that led to the widely acclaimed Subaru BRZ and its Toyota iterations variously badged as Scion FR-S, Toyota GT 86 or, simply, Toyota 86) then noted that

…the 86 is just the first of three sports cars that Toyota is planning to roll out, and that the 86 is the middle of the two in terms of market positioning. The first is more mass-market and cheaper than the 86, and the third is more upmarket than the 86.

We went on to note that

Toyota renewed the Supra trademark on 16 July 2010. Trademarks carry a “use-it-or-lose-it” provision for a period of time after its filing. This author was always under the impression that it was 5 years, but Car and Driver‘s Justin Berkowitz swears that it is, in fact, 3 years…Given that time frame, might Toyota once again lose the Supra trademark? Not necessarily, for Toyota can either renew it or, perhaps, slap the Supra badge on a concept predictor for the eventual production car and thus safeguard it that way.

We’re betting on the latter, and 2013 just happens to be an odd-numbered year that sees major auto shows in Frankfurt, Germany (roughly 190 miles from BMW’s Munich headquarters) starting on 10 September and Tokyo, Japan starting on 20 November. The latter certainly seems to be the ideal venue for unveiling a Toyota FT-Supra V concept.

Don’t, however, expect to run to your Toyota dealer to buy a Mark V Supra any time soon. As Tada-san told Vernon Sarne,

…nothing is sure yet since (the) team is still in the process of conceptualizing the two other Toyota sports cars…it takes five years to develop a sports car from conceptualization to production, as compared with the three years it normally takes to develop a regular vehicle.

Add to that the extra complications of coordination between Munich and Toyota City, and we’d be pleasantly surprised if a reborn Supra would hit the showrooms any sooner than 2018 or 2019. Until then, we might have to settle for a stream of concepts à la Toyota FT-86 or Lexus LFA. And, speaking of the latter, we certainly hope it won’t turn into an elephantine nearly decade-long gestation period for a potential reborn Supra…

Photo of Takeshi Uchiyamada by Koichi Kamoshida of Bloomberg.

Is it a given that Toyota and Lexus will unveil its production and concept vehicles at one of the major, A-list auto shows? Hardly. Of late, the carmaker has revealed new or updated vehicles in venues as diverse as the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance (4th-gen Lexus GS); Le Rendez-Vous Toyota showroom in Paris’ Champs-Elysées (WiWi Me.We concept); the Stagecoach Music Festival in Indio, California (mid-life facelift for the 5th-generation Toyota 4Runner); and even Barker Hangar at the Santa Monica Airport in California (11th-generation Toyota Corolla sedan for North America). Oh, and exactly a year ago to the day, we wrote about the Camatte Sora and Camatte Daichi concepts that debuted at the 2012 Tokyo Toy Show. Now, for the 2013 iteration of said show, Toyota has prepared two new topless takes on the Toy-ota that “Even children can drive!”: the “regular” Camatte57s (shown above) and a far more aggressive and attractive-looking Customized Camatte57s Sport (shown below).

Indeed, rather than receiving Japanese-language names that had us running to Google last year to decipher their meaning, a simple 57s denotes the new-for-2013 sportier topless Camattes. But what is the significance of that number? A homage to the iconic Bugatti Type 57S? Anything to do with Heinz 57 Sauce? No, and no. Rather, as Toyota Global, Europe and USA news releases inform us, the 57 represents the number of body parts in the “regular” Camatte57s, while the “s” stands for the Japanese word sawaru, which means to touch. Add this to Camatte’s derivation from the Japanese word for “care”, meant to signify “caring for others” and “caring for cars”, and, in Toyota’s words, “the name thus reflects the idea that people should feel more in touch with each other and with vehicles.” You certainly can’t get much more touchy-feely than that.

And there we have, other than the toplessness, the main point of departure from last year’s Camatte Sora and Camatte Daichi concepts: rather than a lesser number of largish interchangeable assemblies, 57 individual, much smaller body parts (as shown below) fasten to a spaceframe-type construction via what Jalopnik commentator Old-Busted-Hotness hilariously referred to as “a lot of nipple rings”. As Jalopnik commentators StalePhish and Patrick Frawley, as well as Autoweek‘s Graham Kozak more seriously noted, though, this is essentially Toyota’s take on the mostly unfulfilled promise of spaceframe construction with non-structural body panels, as used by Renault (in their pioneering Espace minivan) and General Motors (in the “dustbuster” minivans from the early-to-mid-1990s, the original Saturn S-series and the Pontiac Fiero). As such, the Camatte57s may well have some untoy-like relevance to Toyota’s future, but please spare us the 10 gazillion nipple rings. There must be a better way to fasten all those body parts…

Other aspects of the latest Camatte are similar to its predecessors, including the 1+2, McLaren F1-style seating with the child driver up front in the center and the adult passengers staggered behind. Or, in Toyota’s words,

Acceleration and braking pedals and seats can be adjusted to enable operation by children, while an adult seated in the rear-right seat assists steering and braking to help develop the child’s driving skills.

While sharing the 2012 Camatte’s electric motor and 1800mm (70.9″) wheelbase, the new 57s is 300mm (11.8″) longer, 200mm (7.9″) lower and 140mm (5.5″) wider than its predecessors.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, is a video worth a thousand pictures? Perhaps. At any rate, Toyota has provided not one but two videos for the Camatte57s. The first, appropriately titled Infinite Possibilities, is a whimsical look at how the multicolored hood in the picture atop this story is just the start. Imagine the whole car like that, or filled with an overwhelming polka dot pattern, or… perhaps we should warn you that the soundtrack can be as cloyingly eye-rolling annoying as some of the possibilities…

The second video is a demonstration of how 2 guys and a girl can attach the 57s body parts to the space frame in 1 minute and 45 seconds…

Yours truly’s first thoughts were that the long sought-after small Lexus roadster would finally see the light of day not as a Scion FR-S/Toyota GT86 derivative, but as a rebodied and re-engined next-gen BMW Z4 (a notion seconded by Glenn Brooks of just-auto)… Jack Rix of Auto Express envisioned a (rebodied, we hope) production version of Toyota’s MR2 Spider-derived, fugly and catfish-like GRMN Sports Hybrid Concept II twinned with a BMW-badged version that would sit in the ‘i’ range somewhere between the i3 and i8…

Even Georg Kacher, in his “future of BMW’s Project i” piece – written a month before the BMW/Toyota joint sports car announcement – unwittingly touches upon yet another possibility with this passage:

“What the BMW community would love instead is an affordable Z2 – think of it as BMW’s answer to the Toyota GT 86/Scion FR-S/Subaru BRZ triplets. This car could pick up what was lost when then Z3 became the Z4, but unfortunately the new compact roadster keeps being rejected by the board, primarily for pricing and positioning reasons. Even though it is now almost too late to sign off on a Z2 based on the purist rear-wheel drive 2 Series components set, the time will probably never be ripe for a front-wheel drive Z2 twinned with the next Mini Cooper S Roadster”.

What about making the BMW Z2 a reality by coupling it with a Lexus version that would compete with long-rumored production Volkswagen and Audi versions of the Concept BlueSport roadster? Sounds good awesome to us!

Alas, over time, Lexus USA officials emphatically shot down the notion of a small sports car, citing the segment’s overall dwindling sales numbers. Too small of a niche to bother with, in other words. Thus, it was a “Yessss!!! Hosanna! Hallelujah! Triumphant fist-pump, jump-up-and-down moment” when Mike Connor, in the MT Confidential column of Motor Trend‘s May 2013 print edition, wrote that

Sources in Japan say Toyota’s version (of the joint BMW/Toyota sports car) will actually underpin an all-new Lexus sports car, a suggestion that makes all the sense in the world given Akio Toyoda’s ambition to make Lexus a genuine global rival to the German lux-meisters. Whisper is the new Lexus will be positioned to compete with the Mercedes SLK, BMW Z4, and entry-level Porsche Boxster.

But wouldn’t BMW be shooting itself in the foot by aiding and abetting a competitor in creating a rival to its own Z4? Perhaps not, given that, nowadays, rival carmakers collaborate on all sorts of niche segment models from tiny Euro-centric A-segment city cars to European “large MPVs” (those approaching U.S. “minivan” size) to all manner of cargo vans. Affordable sports cars are no exception. Think not only the Subaru/Toyota collaboration that begat the BRZ/GT 86/FR-S triplets, but the fact that Mazda’s upcoming 4th-gen (ND) MX-5 Miata will be paired with an Alfa Romeo-badged variant. Motor Trend‘s Connor also echoes the issues raised by German journalist Georg Kacher 4 paragraphs above:

And why does BMW need a new sports car platform? It already has the Z4. True, but the Z4 shares a lot of hardware with the 3 Series, which is fast getting too big to be sliced and diced into a credible two-seat roadster. Sharing with Toyota allows BMW to economically decouple the Z4 platform from the 3 Series, and keep it sports car size. There’s another potential benefit: The new platform could also underpin a new 2 Series coupe as the next-gen 1 Series goes front drive. It would keep the 2 Series rear drive – vital to BMW’s sporty credentials – but, more important, also liberate it from using modified 3 Series hardware, which is getting too big, too heavy and – crucially – too expensive.

This plan, if true, would bring with it one bit of collateral damage: the death of any hopes for a revival of the Toyota Supra. As MT‘s Connor notes:

So why no Supra? It just doesn’t make sense…There’s a strong faction within Toyota that still regards cars like the Supra as a waste of time, given the boom-and-bust sales performance of previous editions… The other problem is where the Supra would fit into the Toyota lineup, particularly in the U.S., where the GT86 is sold as a Scion and a $45,000 Toyota sports car would be a headache for dealers…

Sounds like a lame excuse to us, given that Chevrolet dealers sell Corvettes that start at a bit over that and can balloon to more than twice those sticker price numbers, at which Nissan dealers will also happily sell you a GT-R. Yet, if the BMW-Toyota collaboration is to yield but a single Japanese sports car, it probably makes more sense (and profits) to badge it as a Lexus and not as a Toyota.

Volvo Car Group’s new engine family VEA (Volvo Engine Architecture) will be launched this autumn with world-first i-ART technology that helps to cut fuel consumption in the new diesel engines.

By featuring pressure feedback from each fuel injector instead of using a traditional single pressure sensor in the common rail, i-ART makes it possible to continuously monitor and adapt fuel injection per combustion in each of the four cylinders.

…”Each injector has a small computer on top, which monitors injection pressure. Using this information, the self-adapting i-ART system makes sure that the ideal amount of fuel is injected during each combustion cycle.”

The combination of higher injection pressure and i-ART technology gives the customer an engine with improved fuel economy, considerably lower emissions and high performance output as well as a powerful sound character.

Hmmm…i-ART? Pressure feedback from each fuel injector in a diesel? Improved fuel economy, considerably lower emissions and high performance output? This all sounds very familiar, doesn’t it? Indeed, it does, for we wrote about this back in October 2012, when we commented on Toyota’s 24 September 2012 TMC Announces Status of Its Environmental Technology Development, Future Plans press release.

The i-ART (intelligent-Accuracy Refinement Technology) autonomous closed-loop diesel fuel injection control system, in fact, goes back even further than that, and was pioneered and first announced by Japanese supplier Denso (a part of the Toyota Group conglomerate) back in December 2011! Our prior article also noted that

In essence, this system equips each injector with a pressure sensor that communicates its fuel pressure to the engine ECU and, in doing so, significantly reduces exhaust emissions and increases fuel efficiency, compared with the conventional open-looped technology that does not have feedback function from the injectors. i-ART-equipped versions of the 3-liter 1KD-FTV 4-cylinder diesel debuted in the Brazilian market version of the Hilux pickup truck in April 2012.

Given this information, it strikes us as quite misleading that Volvo’s Vice President for Powertrain Engineering Derek Crabb has the gall to say that

i-ART technology…is a breakthrough comparable to when we invented the groundbreaking lambda sensor for the catalytic converter in 1976. It’s another world-first for Volvo”

Um… sure, Volvo deserves credit for the lambda sensor (and we’ll also give them credit for the illustrations and graphics that accompany this article), but i-ART is a world-second for the Swedish carmaker. Equally annoying is the fact that all the Volvo i-ART write-ups pretty much parrot the world’s-first angle, with one exception as of this writing: TheGreenCarWebsite.co.uk, whose Paul Lucas did note that i-ART was developed by Denso and that

It’s not the only time we will see the technology employed however: you can also look out for i-ART systems in Toyota’s forthcoming 3.0litre commercial diesel engines.

Well… perhaps forthcoming in Europe, but by the time i-ART Volvo diesels go on sale, Toyota will have been offering i-ART-equipped Hilux pickup trucks in, at least, Brazil for 1½ years!

On the fringes of the “top tier” of super sports car makers (think Ferrari, Lamborghini, Porsche and McLaren) that make their own engines for their much-admired creations lies another group of manufacturers that depend on larger outside carmakers for the powertrains that drive their exclusive boutique sports cars. The 1960s and 1970s saw a wealth of primarily Italian and British sports and GT cars (Iso, De Tomaso, Monteverdi, Intermeccanica and Jensen, among others, come to mind) that relied on Detroit 3 V8 power. Lotus’ sports car engines have, primarily, been tuned derivatives of Ford, Renault, General Motors and, most recently, Toyota engines. Supercars from Koenigsegg and Pagani are powered by variants of Ford and Mercedes/AMG engines. Even Aston Martin’s V12 started out as two Ford Duratec V6s mated together. And, tentatively returning from a near-death experience is Dutch-turned-British Spyker, whose multiple concepts and hyper-limited production cars (a 300+ production run over a dozen years makes even the Lexus LFA seem mass-produced by comparison) have been Audi-powered.

Reeling from their “guppy trying to swallow a whale” attempt to buy the bankrupt Saab cars and currently down to a single C8 Aileron model, Spyker’s comeback is centered around the B6 Venator model shown throughout this story that just debuted at the 2013 Geneva Motor Show. Most of the world’s automotive press simply and dutifully parroted the official Spyker news release in noting that it is propelled (pun half-intended) by a transversely-mounted, rear-mid-engined V6 delivering 375+ horsepower through a 6-speed automatic transmission of undisclosed parentage. As Motor Trend‘s Christian Seabaugh noted,

Given Spyker’s history of using Audi-sourced powertrains, we suspect the Venator is powered by Audi’s 3.0-liter supercharged V-6, which makes 333 hp and 325 lb-ft of torque in the S5.

Leave it to Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Dan Neil, however, to not only break the story in the Wall Street Journal of Spyker’s new less-expensive model, but to notice that

The Venator also bears a striking resemblance, in profile and in specification, to the Toyota-powered Lotus Evora S, though Mr. Muller declined to specify his powertrain supplier.

Indeed, a cursory glance at the Spyker B6 Venator reveals a number of Lotus Evora cues such as similar overall proportions, shallow doors, deep side sills, engine air intakes mounted high right behind the doors’ trailing edge, round taillights (albeit doubled up on the Spyker) and a padded rear shelf-cum-vestigial +2 rear seating. And a transversely-mounted rear mid-engine? Other than the Evora, the last time anybody attempted that in this segment was during the 1970s heyday of the Italian Ferrari Dino GT4 / Lamborghini Urraco / Maserati Merak triumvirate.

Comparing the meager numbers provided in the official Spyker Venator news release with the Lotus Evora specifications reveals close, but not spot-on wheelbase (98.4″/2500mm for the Spyker vs 101.4″/2575mm for the Lotus), overall length (171.1″/4347mm for the Spyker vs 171.2″/4350 mm for the “base” Lotus Evora and 171.7″ for the Evora S) and weight (under 3086 lbs/1400 kg for the fully carbon fiber-bodied Spyker vs 3179 lbs for a composite-bodied IPS automatic Lotus Evora S) numbers, with both carmakers using an all-aluminum platform. Autocar adds overall width numbers of 74.1″/1882mm for the Spyker vs 72.7″/1846mm for the Lotus.

We use the above IPS automatic Lotus Evora S comparison advisedly, for the Spyker will seemingly be offered only with a 6-speed automatic, just like the Lotus’ optionally available IPS (Intelligent Precision Shift) transmission that is essentially the U660E 6-speed automatic transaxle used in front-wheel-drive V6 versions of the latest Toyota Avalon, Camry (including the Australian-built Aurion), Sienna and Venza, as well as Lexus’ ES 350 and RX 350. We remind you, though, that Lotus adds paddle shifters as well as sport and a full-manual mode that includes a lockup torque converter for 2nd-thru-top gear à la IS F. And the Spyker B6 Venator engine’s claimed 375+ hp is far closer to the Evora S engine (a Lotus-tweaked, 345 hp version of Toyota’s rare supercharged 2GR-FZE 3.5-liter V6 that debuted in Australia’s short-lived Aurion TRD) than to the base Evora’s naturally aspirated, 276 hp 2GR-FE 3.5-liter V6.

It should also be noted that the currently struggling Lotus Cars certainly hasn’t been averse to sharing its sports cars’ basic structure with other carmakers. The Elise/Exige fraternal twins form the foundation for vehicles as diverse as the battery electric Tesla Roadster and the “hypercar” Hennessey Venom GT, and a one-off 414E Hybrid concept version of the Evora evolved into the Infiniti Emerg-E concept that appeared at last year’s Geneva show. Thus, it certainly wouldn’t be unusual for Lotus to sell the Evora’s underpinnings to Spyker as the basis for their new B6 Venator model. But is the Evora S Toyota-sourced powertrain also included in the deal? Spyker staffers, from CEO Victor Muller on down, are keeping mum on this point. We should note, however, that a number of internet reports are stating a 3.5-liter capacity for that V6, even though the official Spyker news release doesn’t mention engine size. Add that to the web of circumstantial evidence pointing towards a Lotus Evora/Toyota connection for the B6 Venator.

Yet, we can’t disregard a clumsily-translated article from the 500autos.com site that suggests the Spyker B6 Venator’s roots lying not in the Lotus Evora but, instead, as a derivative of the stillborn, Henrik Fisker-penned Artega GT that was powered by a Volkswagen/Audi-sourced 3.6-liter V6, in keeping with Spyker’s affinity for Audi powerplants. Then again, Road & Track magazine’s Alex Kierstein asked Spyker chief commercial officer John Walton about the company’s larger, Audi V8-powered C8 Aileron model and got this surprising reply:

“[The Audi-sourced V8] really hasn’t got enough bang for the buck. To be honest, every supercar needs to have something that begins with a ’5′ today. That’s why we’re supercharging the car in the future, which will take it to over 500-hp.

“Our opportunity to develop that particular engine was really over. And I wanted to look at other opportunities, that weren’t necessarily always V8s.”

Does this mean it may be a forced induction V6, one of the options being considered for the yet-to-be-sourced powertrain for the Venator?…

“We’re not in any hurry to jump to the next generation. Having said that, the development work we’re doing with engine suppliers on the Venator allows us to actually look at slotting something into [the Aileron] too.”

Kierstein goes on to say that an engine supplier is not yet lined up, but it is notable that Spyker seemingly isn’t as wedded to Audi power, even in the larger C8 Aileron, as we once thought, a notion seconded by Car and Driver‘s Jens Meiners. Hopefully, Kierstein’s upcoming interview with Spyker CEO Victor Muller will shed some light on the subject, while Jalopnik‘s Máté Petrány suggests that “we will know more in a month’s time”. In the meantime, we will say that, quirky as the B6 Venator is from some angles, it’s definitely more compelling than another super-limited production, Toyota V6-powered rear-mid-engined luxury GT 2-seater, the Mitsuoka Orochi…

Among this author’s many oddball geeky/nerdy automotive interests is following Motor Trend magazine’s annual Power List of the “Top 50 movers, shakers, heart-breakers in the mercurial world of autodom”, as they described it in 2008. This ritual goes back further than that, though, having started in 2005, and has been compiled by Todd Lassa since 2010.

Its latest 2013 iteration reminds us that “steady is the new up”, with less changes in the ranks and listings than at any time in recent memory. Yet, one of the handful of exceptions to that rule is Toyota Motor Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda, who rises from the #26 position in 2012 all the way to #3 this year, and is, in Lassa’s words, gunning for first. His passionate approach includes kudos for the successful Scion FR-S launch and for his cheerleading efforts in ensuring that nonsport models such as the Lexus GS and Toyota Avalon have a personality, as well as spearheading the company’s return to Le Mans and the FIA World Endurance Championship.

Also appearing on the list is Bob Carter, rising from #45 in 2012 to #34 this year, chiefly on the strength of his promotion last April to Toyota Motor Sales USA’s Automotive Operations Senior Vice President, a position that includes responsibilities for Scion and Lexus as well. Fortunately, Lassa affirms that, like corporate chief and scion Toyoda, Carter personally prefers sporty cars over Camrys, and goes on to suggest that Carter may become Toyota’s next American board member, an honor that other pundits have suggested for Senior Managing Officer of Toyota Motor Corporation and Chairman of Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada Réal “Ray” Tanguay.

The third Toyota official on the 2013 list, and marking his first appearance in the #45 position is Lexus Product Marketing Planning Division General Manager Mark Templin. Talk of his “unenviably tough job assignment” and goals of growing Lexus outside North America, however, were overshadowed by the jaw-dropping suggestion that Lexus’s aims included “Phasing out best-selling ES. Let Toyota Avalon have the segment”.

So, was Todd Lassa (who also serves as Automobile magazine’s Executive Editor) merely playing armchair product planner and expressing a wish for a more enthusiast-friendly lineup of Lexus sedans? Or is Lexus planning to follow the current Mercedes-Benz and future BMW playbook of using rear-wheel-drive platforms for D-segment and larger models and front-wheel-drive platforms for C-segment and smaller vehicles going forward? This author reached out to Mr. Lassa and received the following reply:

The statement about RWD does NOT come from Mark Templin. Several sources have told me that Toyota will satisfy the Lexus ES market with the Avalon.

Interesting, and something this author has decidedly mixed feelings about. As implied above, going with rear-wheel-drive-centric mid-sized and larger models (with all-wheel-drive options for snowy climes) would cement Lexus’ status as a worthy Mercedes-Benz and BMW rival with an equal emphasis on handling and driving dynamics. On paper, this makes the front-wheel-drive ES an out-of-place throwback that is saddled with a reputation as a dull-to-drive, old folks’ retirement community conveyance. By the time the Lexus ES’s 5th-generation was launched in February 2006, it was a model built but unavailable for sale in its native Japan, and sold only in North America and a handful of Asian and Middle East markets. Its newfound success in China (where, at one point, it was the 4th-best-selling luxury sedan) was thwarted by Sino/Japanese tensions over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands that sent all Japanese car sales in China plummeting just as the new 6th-generation ES made its move to the larger Toyota Avalon base – primarily to satisfy China’s longing for maximum rear-seat legroom in a luxury segment whose vehicles are usually chauffeur-driven.

In a way, though, it would be a shame if the ES goes away, for its newest iteration, arguably, wears the cleanest, most attractive and least overwrought take on Lexus’ new spindle grille and design language, and this author was quite pleasantly surprised by its driving manners and handling. Then again, similar kudos have been expressed over the new 4th-generation (XX40) Toyota Avalon which shares its underpinnings with the newest ES. And we’ll certainly admit that a top-of-the-line 2013 Toyota Avalon Limited is probably closer to the latest Lexus ES than any of the previous ones were to a Toyota Camry XLE V6. And Toyota could borrow a page from the Tundra playbook and slip a Platinum version of the Avalon above the Limited to even better replace the Lexus ES.

Yet, as with our previous story, this author remains skeptical of the rumor that Lexus would eventually kill the ES. It is, by far, Lexus’ best-selling sedan in the United States (and Lexus’ second-best-selling vehicle overall here). To put the numbers into perspective, the 5186 copies of the ES sold in the U.S. during January 2013 exceeds sales of the rest of the brand’s car lineup combined (we’re leaving the SUV and crossover RX, GX and LX lines out of this discussion). And, looking back at the 2012 calendar year, the 56,158 ES units sold in the U.S. are just a couple of thousand units under the sum of last year’s IS, GS and LS sales here combined. ES’s sales advantage, in fact, might have been even greater had it not been for the downtime due to the production changeover from the 5th to 6th generation model. Is Lexus really in a position to “throw away” sales numbers like those? Or does Toyota think that a combination of a better and more popular Avalon, a roomier Lexus IS and a vastly better-selling (and critically-acclaimed) Lexus GS might eventually make the ES redundant? At any rate, with the latest versions of the Lexus ES and Toyota Avalon siblings having been on sale for just a few months and foreseen to sell for 6 to 7 years in essentially their current state, there is still time for Toyota to let the market (and the company’s engineers, product planners and marketers) sort out what the best course of action is going forward.

A final footnote in this discussion is the decades-long, on-and-off rumors that the Lexus ES line would eventually be built in North America. These reached a new crescendo when the latest ES essentially became a higher-lux version of the built-only-in-the-U.S. Toyota Avalon amidst a strong yen/weak dollar currency exchange rate that would make North American assembly far more profitable. Among the latest of those predictions comes from Haig Stoddard of the respected WardsAuto industry journal, who in mid-December 2012 said he “expects Toyota to add production of a Lexus model at its Georgetown, Kentucky plant”, the precise location of Avalon production. This decision alone should have a large bearing on the Lexus ES’s future, and we should add that, since then, the newly-weakening yen versus the U.S. dollar is making the decision to move ES production to North America a less pressing matter.

…but we’ll believe it when we see it.

The notion of a sub-GT 86 rear-wheel-drive sports Toyota is hardly a new one, and is one we previously discussed as recently as October 2012 and as long ago as August 2010, and the particulars remain much the same as we noted then: mechanical bits from Toyota’s sole remaining small and inexpensive rear-wheel-drive platform lurking under the Daihatsu Be‣go, Daihatsu Terios and Toyota Rush small SUVs which also formed the basis of the Gazoo Racing/MN FR Hot hatch and TES Concept T-Sports Tokyo Auto Salon projects.

The latest rumors in this regard come to us via Japan-based Australian journalist Peter Lyon, who occasionally showns the rumormonger sensibilities of, say, Auto Express or Japan’s Best Car. The twist in this latest story (as reported on Motor Trend‘s website) is that the sub-GT 86 RWD Toyota would not be a 150″ long (think 7″ shorter than the current Mazda MX-5 Miata) sports coupe powered by the Toyota Rush’s 1.5-liter, 109 bhp 3SZ-VE inline-4 engine mated to a 5-speed manual gearbox – as the 2010 rumors went – but rather, as Lyon notes, it will be a

…new fun-to-drive car (with) four seats, five doors, a 1.5-liter engine developing around 150 hp, and be aimed at a global audience no sooner than 2016. The new car will totally redefine the company’s entry-level sporty cars by taking on a new hatchback-style shape, a rear-drive platform and a naturally aspirated four-cylinder engine…the car will employ a sleek hatch-style silhouette and be priced around $20,000. A source told us that the hatch will employ a revised version of Toyota’s Rush mini-crossover pictured above but that the new iteration will employ a lower ride height and four-wheel independent suspension.

Certainly sounds like a true spiritual successor to the cult classic KP61 Toyota Starlet hatchback. And 100 hp-per-liter from a naturally-aspirated engine? None of Toyota’s current 1.5-liter engines (the aforementioned, Daihatsu-designed 3SZ-VE, the North America Yaris’ 1NZ-FE and the cheapo, VVT-i-less 2NR-FE from the India and Brazil-built Etios) produce anywhere near that much power. Sounds like, short of developing an all-new engine, the plan may well be to apply Toyota’s D4-S direct+port dual injection and give a high-revving, low-torque character to one of the existing 1.5-liter mills.

Some of the commentary on the Motor Trend forums cited fears that this hatchback would turn out to be heavier than the Toyota GT 86 / Scion FR-S / Subaru BRZ. Not necessarily, we say, if they made it small enough, and we’ll cite the fact that the B-segment Mazda2 hatchback, at 2306 lbs (1045 kg) is 141 lbs (63 kg) lighter than the lightest version of the current Mazda MX-5 Miata roadster. A bigger issue, though, might be a ridiculously tight back seat if Toyota goes too small with a RWD hatchback.

Maybe we’re getting carried away here, and, much as we’d love to see this become reality, we’re taking this rumor with a bagful of Kosher rock salt. Even Peter Lyon seems unsure, as he hedges his bets noting that

Whether such a car will make it from the drawing board all the way to showrooms around the world – or in the U.S. – remains to be seen, but we’re hopeful Toyota can prepare an rear-drive four-door hatch for about the same price as a base Toyota Camry.

Sure, we’re hopeful, too, and we would certainly love to see this become a reality. But we’re not holding our breath…

Toyota plans 9 new vehicle launches for 2013 — including five for its Toyota brand, one for Scion and three for Lexus, after 12 new or refreshed models in 2012.

Twelve new or refreshed models in 2012? Wasn’t it 19? Well, the 19 for 2012 consisted of 12 Toyotas, 6 Lexus and one Scion, so it seems Carter was only referring to Toyotas. So, if we work from the third set of clues given by a high-ranking Toyota official in less than 4 months, plus our previous sleuthing and that of other pundits, the list would consist of the

Toyota Highlander – All-new 3rd-generation. This time, we’re combining all variants of the Highlander, hybrid and non-hybrid alike, into one entry.

Toyota Tundra – More likely a semi-extensive second mid-life facelift for the current 2nd-generation model, as opposed to an all-new 3rd-gen.

Toyota Corolla – All-new 11th-generation, expected as a sedan only, with the Matrix hatchback variant failing to see a third generation.

Toyota 4Runner – A mid-life refresh to the current 5th-generation model originally launched in September 2009.

Toyota Sequoia – As with the Tundra, an extensive second facelift for the current 2nd-generation model, as opposed to an all-new 3rd-gen. If this is pushed back to the 2014 calendar year, then Toyota was counting hybrid and non-hybrid versions of the Highlander separately after all.

Lexus IS – All-new 3rd-generation, officially confirmed to debut in just over a week at the 2013 Detroit Auto Show.

Lexus GX – A mid-life facelift for the current 2nd-generation that originally debuted in November 2009.

Lexus NX – Believed to debut at one or more of the major fall 2013 auto shows (Frankfurt, Tokyo or Los Angeles), Lexus’ newest model line is a compact crossover SUV smaller than the brand’s most popular model, the RX. Like the latest Toyota RAV4 from whence it’s expected to derive, the NX 200t and NX 300h launch (from public introduction to press preview to on-sale date) will probably encompass two calendar years.

And the Scion? It is interesting to note that Bob Carter is confirming our notion of a single new or refreshed model for the brand for 2013, as opposed to Automotive News‘ insistence on two new models. While Jim Lentz tells us to expect nothing more than a mid-term refresh for the current 2nd-generation tC, is Scion really going to celebrate it’s 10th anniversary only with something so anticlimactic? Or did he misspeak, leaving us to hold out hope for a new-generation 5-door hatchback instead? Well, if Scion once misidentified the FR-S manual transmission code on its press preview materials, perhaps they also erred in identifying their big news for 2013.

Besides reporting Bob Carter’s clues regarding the 9 new models for this year, David Shepardson also obtained the first official confirmation we’ve seen that

…the new (Furia) concept Toyota will show at the North American International Auto Show will be the basis — at least in part — for the new Corolla…

“You’ll see the concept of the Corolla,” Carter said, saying it will have “some of the elements” of what the new Corolla will look like. “We’re looking at styling of the vehicle in a way for the youth of today. Corolla has always been a youth car.”

Ummm…did he really say that with a straight face?

Flash forward just over 2 years, and history repeats, in a manner of speaking. On 11 September 2012, a Toyota USA news release announcing a new ad and communications tagline cited Toyota Division group vice president and general manager Bill Fay’s prediction that “seven, exciting all-new or updated Toyota and Scion vehicles (will be unveiled) in 2013. We deliberately waited to comment on this until after the November/December 2012 Los Angeles Auto Show (the last major show of the 2012 calendar year), and the resulting story was our first for 2013. Two days later, another Toyota USA Newsroom press release, the December 2012 and Year-End Sales Conference Call Notes, revised this to

Nine all-new or significantly updated models…Beginning this month with RAV4, followed later this year by the Lexus IS and Scion tC, just to name a few

in the words of Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A. President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Lentz.

So, what are the two extra models? Jim Lentz made it crystal-clear that one of them is the new, 3rd-generation Lexus IS, which will debut in a little over a week. Rather than get into particulars here, we refer you to the Front Page of the my.IS website, where yours truly has been writing, and will continue to do so, on what we know so far in advance of the 15 January 2013 reveal. The other is, we predict, the Lexus GX mid-life facelift, given that the brand’s mid-range SUV usually marches in lockstep with its Toyota 4Runner sibling, and that one is widely believed to receive its own refresh later this year. That GX facelift should make it the latest Lexus to receive the trademark spindle grille.

And what about Lexus’ upcoming compact crossover NX line? While it is believed to see the light of day at one or more of the major 2013 fall auto shows, namely Frankfurt (press days Tuesday 10 and Wednesday 11 September), Tokyo and Los Angeles (both with press days Wednesday 20 and Thursday 21 November), its more-than-likely 2014 calendar year on-sale date has us pushing it back to the next round of Toyota and Lexus debuts.

We’re rather perplexed, though, by Jim Lentz’s mention of the Scion tC among the 9 models to be revised this year. The audio version of his remarks clearly mention the tC. The current, 2nd-generation tC made its public debut at the 2010 New York Auto Show, and appeared in U.S. dealerships the following October. Thus, the 2013 New York Auto Show (long a favored venue for Scion reveals) could bring a mid-life facelift for the brand’s front-wheel-drive coupe, which, sales-wise, has held up better than this author expected in the face of the far superior and sportier FR-S. Did Lentz, in fact, misspeak when he mentioned the tC, or should we cast aside our beliefs and hopes for at least one, if not two all-new Scion models this year?

(We will unveil) seven, exciting all-new or updated Toyota and Scion vehicles in 2013

Longtime Kaizen Factor readers know that we take these proclamations as a challenge to come up with a precise list of the vehicles in question. A couple of things seem crystal-clear: Lexus is specifically excluded from this prediction (their 2013 calendar year new releases are expected to be the 3rd-generation IS sedans, the GX SUV’s mid-life facelift and the new, sub-RX crossover SUV line, the NX); and the fact that it was uttered by a Toyota USA official means no Japanese domestic market or Europe-only models are part of the 7.

Unlike our previous Informed Speculation articles, where we were mostly on our own as far as deducing what went on the lists, this time there is more internet chatter on what the precise models are, mostly via Mark Rechtin of Automotive News. At the 4th-generation Toyota Avalon press preview in early November, he chatted with Toyota U.S.A.’s vice president of marketing Jack Hollis, who revealed that

The Avalon…will be followed by redesigns of the Toyota RAV4 and Highlander crossovers, Tundra full-sized pickup and Corolla compact sedan. A midcycle update for the 4Runner also is planned…

The redesigned RAV4 is expected in the first quarter of 2013; the Highlander and Tundra are coming the second quarter, and the Corolla is scheduled to arrive in the third quarter…

In addition, Toyota’s Scion brand has its xB and xD hatchbacks scheduled for renewals, either as a redesign or an entirely new product category.

Without further ado, here are our predictions:

Toyota Corolla
After the 11th-generation (E160) Corolla’s 2012 calendar year debut in Japan (in sedan, wagon and Auris hatchback guises), Europe and Oceania (Australia/New Zealand), North America patiently waits its turn. And it looks like we may have to wait a bit longer. Once touted as a shoo-in for a 2013 Detroit Auto Show unveiling, the announcement of the Monday 14 January 2013 debut of the Toyota Furia Concept at the show turned that notion on its head. The final scene (shot above right) of its pyromaniac’s delight teaser video shows the side profile of what appears to be a C-segment front-wheel-drive sedan such as the Corolla. And, indeed, there is near-unanimity among pundits (this author included) that Furia is a preview of the 2014 Corolla sedan for North America. Thus, we’d be surprised if the production version of the newest 11th-gen Corolla iteration is officially revealed any earlier than the 2013 New York Auto Show press conferences on Wednesday 27 and Thursday 28 March.

As with most if not all recent Toyota and Lexus new-generation launches, we expect the new Corolla to use a carryover engine from its predecessor, in this case the 2ZR-FE 1.8 liter, 4-cylinder engine. If Oceania’s new Corolla Hatchback (Auris) is anything to go by, it may receive a slight 4 hp bump, to 136. Transaxles, though, may be a different story. Again referencing Oceania and other markets that have seen the newest Corolla, the current woefully obsolete 5-speed manual and 4-speed automatic will, in all likelihood, be replaced by a 6-speed manual and a Multidrive CVT (Continuously Variable Transmission). Yes, it’s more likely than not that the Corolla will become the second non-hybrid (besides the Scion iQ) Toyota CVT application in North America. Whether any of them (such as a sporty Corolla model) will use the Multidrive S with 7-speed sport sequential manumatic mode and paddle shifters remains to be seen.

Speaking of sporty Corolla models, we hope the current tepid Corolla S model gives way to a proper Corolla SE that follows the lead of current Yaris, Camry and Sienna SE variants in going beyond the merely cosmetic and offering meaningful firmer suspension and steering tweaks. And what about a return of the Corolla XRS with the 2.5-liter, 4-cylinder 2AR-FE engine as a rival to the Honda Civic Si, Ford Focus ST and Volkswagen GTI? Don’t count on it, much as we’d like to see it. Another losing bet is on a third generation of the Toyota Matrix, as Toyota Division group vice president and general manager Bill Fay told Mark Rechtin of Automotive News, “If we don’t have the Matrix, it won’t be the end of the world.” Thus, it seems that the Toyota brand will join the Chevrolet Cruze, Dodge Dart, Honda Civic and Nissan Sentra in not offering a C-segment 5-door hatchback body style in the United States. No biggie, for the Scion brand will probably take up the slack. More baffling is Fay’s contention that the Matrix will continue to be available in Canada. Will the aging 2nd-generation E140 Matrix soldier on alongside the newer E160 Corolla sedan in the Great White North? Or might the Green Car Reports‘ John Voelcker be on to something when he suggests that the new E160 Auris might be imported into Canada as a Matrix replacement?

Toyota Highlander
With Toyota’s Camry and Avalon and the Lexus ES having been renewed within the past year or so, it is now their K-platform Highlander sibling’s turn for a new generation. Although any growth spurt would probably be slight, at least the discontinuation of the V6 and 3rd-seat options from the North American RAV4 makes for much less overlap between the two. The 3.5-liter 2GR-FE V6 should be largely carryover. Whether the base 2.7-liter 4-cylinder 1AR-FE engine survives in the next Highlander is an open question, given that in the latest Sienna minivan the 4-cylinder option was a barely more fuel economical resounding flop that was only offered for 2 model years. For the V6, it is a given that the current 5-speed automatic transaxle will give way to the U660E 6-speed auto currently used in the latest Camry, Avalon and ES V6s.

The current 2nd-generation Highlander is an anomaly that, like the Toyota Zelas/Scion tC and Lexus ES, is built (as a hybrid and for export to a handful of markets outside North America) but not sold in Japan. Going forward, however, that will change. As a February 2012 press release informs us:

Toyota will increase production of the Highlander mid-size SUV in late 2013 at the company’s Princeton, Indiana (USA) plant. Hybrid and export versions will be included…

The company will invest about $400 million to support global demand for the Highlander, which will no longer be built in Japan by late 2013. Toyota builds Highlander in China for that market only…

Highlander is currently sold in Russia and Australia, and TMMI will export to those countries.

Speaking of Australia, in that market the Highlander still bears the horrible, Freddy Kruegeresque Kluger nameplate, due to a conflict with a Highlander trim level for the Hyundai Terracan SUV that was discontinued in 2007. Might the Australian nomenclature finally align with that for the rest of the world?

Given the newest Corolla’s preview by the Furia concept and Jack Hollis’ assertion that the 3rd-generation Highlander will go on sale in the 2nd quarter of 2013, might this be the major production Toyota debut for the 2013 Detroit Auto Show?

Toyota Highlander Hybrid
As noted above, the big news regarding the 3rd-generation of the Toyota Highlander Hybrid is the shift in sourcing from Japan’s Kyushu facility to the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indiana, Inc. (TMMI) plant in the U.S. This makes it the first Toyota hybrid to be built in the Hoosier state.

We suspect that the 2.5-liter, 4-cylinder 2AR-FXE hybrid gasoline-electric powertrain from the current Camry, Avalon and Lexus ES would be marginal in the bulkier and heavier Highlander, but would an extra 178cc, 8 hp and 15 lb/ft of torque make the difference? Those are the approximate benefits from hybridizing the current base Highlander’s slightly larger 1AR-FE 2.7-liter four to create an Atkinson cycle hybrid 1AR-FXE. Useful as they may be, though, we suspect that the next Highlander Hybrid will carry on with the current 2GR-FXE 3.5-liter V6 hybrid powertrain.

Given all this emphasis on U.S.-only sourcing, we expect the latest Highlander to join the Avalon and RAV4 EV in having an American chief engineer.

Toyota Tundra
The current, 2nd-generation of the space shuttle-towing Toyota Tundra full-size pickup truck made its debut at the February 2006 Chicago Auto Show. Since then, it has seen a minor facelift coupled with the replacement of the “middle option” 4.7-liter 2UZ-FE V8 engine with the newer, more powerful yet more economical 4.6-liter 1UR-FE V8 for the 2010 model year. We expect its latest version to debut 7 years later, during the Thursday 7 and Friday 8 February media preview for the 2013 Chicago Auto Show.

By most accounts, don’t expect a totally new, 3rd-gen Tundra to emerge. Rather, we should expect to see something akin to the extensive second facelifts applied to the 3rd-generation (XX30) Toyota Avalon in April 2010 for the 2011 model year; or to the 4th-generation (XF40) Lexus LS for the 2013 model year. Or, in the words of Motor Trend

…a source confirmed to us that the Tundra’s updates will be purely aesthetic and quite minimal – don’t expect to see any updates to the truck’s powertrains.

This is partially contradicted by Mark Rechtin of Automotive News‘ predictions dating back to last August:

Toyota will call (the spring 2013 re-engineering) a full redesign, but the V8 powertrains and suspension will remain the same, and the ladder frame dimensions won’t change much…

Expect Toyota to start pushing the 4.0-liter V6 version hard for corporate average fuel economy reasons, using direct injection to boost horsepower from its current 270 to more than 300. A larger fuel tank will increase range. Expect more “trucky” styling.

Finally! A long-overdue 1GR-FSE direct-injected 4-liter V6. We wonder if it will feature dual (D4-S) direct+port injection or go direct injection-only like the 2.5-liter 4GR-FSE V6. And would a V6 that powerful threaten to make the small 4.6-liter V8 redundant?

In comparison to the recent activity surrounding Detroit 3 full-size pickup trucks, then, expect something more akin to the 2013 Ford F-150 and Ram 1500 refreshes than an all-new generation like the upcoming 2014 Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra.

Toyota 4Runner
The 5th-generation 4Runner was unveiled at the Texas State Fair on 24 September 2009, for the 2010 model year. Thus, it is due for a mid-life refresh for the traditional autumn 2013 kickoff of the 2014 model year. Primarily focused around new headlights, taillights, front grille inserts, exterior colors and interior tweaks, there may nevertheless be one significant change if Mark Rechtin’s Tundra prediction noted above holds true: the addition of direct (or dual direct+port) injection to the current 4-liter 1GR-FE V6 to create a 1GR-FSE successor.

Its overseas Toyota Land Cruiser Prado fraternal twin and its upmarket Lexus GX 460 derivative should similarly see a minor facelift, the latter becoming the latest Lexus to receive the signature spindle grille.

Toyota Sequoia
Where the Toyota Tundra goes, its Sequoia full size sport utility vehicle offshoot soon follows. Although not explicitly mentioned in the latest round of “new Toyota” predictions, the suggestion of a 2014 model year “re-engineering” by Rechtin would imply a Tundra-like makeover to appear no later than the 2013 Los Angeles Auto Show press previews on Wednesday 20 and Thursday 21 November. For reference, the 2nd-generation Tundra made its public debut at the February 2006 Chicago Auto Show but did not go into production until a full year later, on February 2007. In contrast, the 2nd-gen Sequoia first appeared at the November 2007 Los Angeles Auto Show but went into production the following month. Thus, our prediction is not particularly far-fetched.

Given that the Sequoia is probably too large and heavy for even an upgraded 1GR-FSE V6, don’t expect much more than a revised front end, taillights and wheels, with a couple of new exterior colors and some interior tweaks thrown in for good measure.

New Scion hatchback (xD successor?)
Historically, Scion’s two 5-door hatchback offerings have marched together in lockstep. The original 2004 xA and xB debuted at the Los Angeles Auto Show on 2 January 2003 and both went on sale together, starting with 105 Toyota dealerships in California on 6 June of that year. Their successors, the xD and the 2nd-generation xB were both unveiled on 16 December 2006 at an invitation-only, no-camera event in Miami, Florida, followed by their joint public reveal on 8 February 2007 at the Chicago Auto Show. Soon thereafter, however, each went their own way. The xD went on sale in early August 2007 and soon settled into a routine groove of traditional late summer/early fall (between August and October) annual model changes. In contrast, the larger 2nd-gen xB was all over the map…er…calendar when transitioning from one model year to the next. After its debut in early May 2007 (3 months ahead of its xD sibling), it followed a March/April pattern for release of the following model years until 2011, when the 2012 xB was pushed back to July (thus creating a 16-month 2011 model year). Another 16-month (if not even longer) 2012 model year is in store, given that the 2013 model year xB, in Scion’s words, “will begin arriving in dealerships early next year” (the 2013 calendar year).

In light of this, we’re going to agree to disagree with Mark Rechtin’s contention that replacements for both the xB and xD will be introduced at the New York Auto Show in March. Would Scion really replace the xB so soon after the 2013 model goes on sale? We’ll stick out our necks and say no, and suggest that Scion’s 10th-anniversary festivities will only include a single new model, and that the xD will be discontinued before the xB. We will agree, though, that we’ll likely see several new Release Series special editions during 2013 to celebrate 10 years of Scion. (This author will be rooting for an admittedly unlikely long-shot larger-engined, manual transmission Scion iQ micro-hot hatch).

Toyota’s traditional veil of secrecy becomes even more impenetrable when trying to figure out what the future holds for the Scion model range. Back in April, a teaser for a subscriber-only WardsAuto article quoted then-Scion vice president Jack Hollis as saying

We don’t have plans for a direct xB or xD replacement…Harkening back to the original brand tenet of “one-and-done” models, Scion won’t carry over the names of the xB and xD

Soon, the notion of rebadged Daihatsu models as part of the future of Scion took hold, and Mark Rechtin, in the latest iteration of his annual “future of Scion” predictions for Automotive News and AutoWeek agreed, suggesting that

There has been talk of reconfiguring the boxy, 100-inch wheelbase Daihatsu COO/Materia (a.k.a. Toyota bB), which is closer in size and design to the original xB that defined the Scion brand.

Because of the xD’s tepid sales, Scion is rethinking its entry in the segment. We may see something more like the Ractis mini-minivan from the Japan market. The new xD (successor) likely will arrive in the fall of 2013.

Other possibilities
In spite of having more clues and hints than ever, there is still an unexpected level of uncertainty hanging over these predictions. Does the Toyota RAV4, with a public reveal in November 2012 but an early 2013 start-of-manufacture and sales date truly belong on last year’s predictions list or on this one? Is Mark Rechtin right about 2 Scion debuts for 2013 versus our prediction for a single one? Is Toyota counting the Highlander as one entity this year as opposed to last year’s counting of hybrids and non-hybrid versions separately?

Speaking of hybrids, a number of pundits, such as Auto Express, Green Car Reports and WardsAuto have wondered about the possibility of a gasoline-electric RAV4. Auto Express quotes RAV4 Deputy Chief Engineer Yoshikazu Saeki as saying that

…a hybrid “would not be difficult to do. We are watching the market. After introducing the new RAV4 we will see. There will be a possibility of introducing a hybrid RAV4 and we will respond to what the market wants.”

while WardsAuto cites Toyota U.S.A vice president-marketing Bill Fay as saying that

A hybrid version of the RAV4 is possible, but not now. You never know what’s down the road, but nothing short-term.

Perhaps Toyota sees some overlap between the Prius v and a RAV4 Hybrid, even though the former is longer, lower and narrower than the new RAV4. Also, unlike RAV4, Prius v is unavailable with all-wheel-drive. Or is Toyota, in a sense, borrowing from the Ford playbook that saw it abandon the Escape crossover SUV hybrid in favor of a front-wheel-drive only C-Max Hybrid tall wagon?

The initial draft of this article had a 2014 model year mid-term facelift for the 3rd-generation Toyota Sienna not-so-minivan in place of the Sequoia, given that the outgoing Highlander got one after 3 model years. The current Toyota Venza, Tundra and 4Runner mid-life refreshes, on the other hand, didn’t happen until after the 4th model year, Thus, we walked away from that prediction.

Finally, my esteemed colleague Flipside909 keeps insisting on how long overdue the Tacoma not-so-compact pickup truck is for a new generation. To which Mark Rechtin (again?!) of Automotive News replies:

The Tacoma soldiers on until a fall 2014 redesign that is required for safety and emissions standards.

Ahhh…then we can start our 2014 calendar year predictions list with a Sienna facelift and a new-generation Tacoma…